Likelihood-based specification analysis of continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate

An extensive collection of continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate is evaluated over data sets that have appeared previously in the literature. The analysis, which uses the simulated maximum likelihood procedure proposed by Durham and Gallant (2002), provides new insights regarding several previously unresolved questions. For single factor models, I find that the volatility, not the drift, is the critical component in model specification. Allowing for additional flexibility beyond a constant term in the drift provides negligible benefit. While constant drift would appear to imply that the short rate is nonstationary, in fact, stationarity is volatility-induced. The simple constant elasticity of volatility model fits weekly observations of the three-month Treasury bill rate remarkably well but is easily rejected when compared with more flexible volatility specifications over daily data. The methodology of Durham and Gallant can also be used to estimate stochastic volatility models. While adding the latent volatility component provides a large improvement in the likelihood for the physical process, it does little to improve bond-pricing performance.     

创新型企业组织形式的设计

创新型企业在组织构成上与传统企业有很大的不同，它是为了达到技术和产品创新的目的，在不同专业领域进行一定方式的分工和合作的一批高素质技术人员的集合。因此，在组织上，创新型企业就要不同于传统企业的直线职能式的组织结构。经研究，它应以项目组为组织的基本单元，建立矩阵式的组织结构，充分利用人力资源，灵活、快速地适应环境的变化。     

深基坑施工中的喷锚支护设计

喷锚支护是近２０年来发展起来的一种岩土体加固技术。７０年代成功地应用于边坡及挡土墙的加固，近几年开始用于深基坑边坡支护。本文在分析喷锚支护加固机理的基础上，通过一工程实例，说明喷锚支护技术用于深基坑开挖支护是安全可靠的。与传统支护结构相比，具有工期短，造价更合理的特点。     

Structuring Corporate Headquarters: An Investigation of Franchising

This article focuses on the structuring of the corporate headquarters in a franchise organization. Four essential issues that are related to franchisors organizational structure are discussed—homogeneity and heterogeneity of franchisors structure, company-owned and franchise arrangement, the dynamics between strategy and structure, and performing innovative and administrative functions simultaneously in the headquarters. Propositions are given for each issue. The results of qualitative analysis associated with each issue are discussed.     

论转轨时期我国商贸产业规模结构优化

商贸产业规模结构优化的依据是市场竞争优势，政府的作用是催化竞争。     

盾构始发技术在沈阳地铁一号线中的应用

文章结合沈阳地铁一号线第4合同段盾构的正常始发,通过对盾构始发施工的技术难点分析,重点介绍其施工工艺及关键技术,并对常见的问题提出相应的预防措施。     

基于熵理论的项目组织结构评价与选择

首先分析了系统结构对系统内信息流的影响,从信息的角度对项目组织结构的有序度进行评价,引入了信息流的时效和质量的概念。然后以熵理论为基础,建立了可以进行组织结构优化设计和进行定量评价的时效质量熵模型;并给出了效质有序度的详细计算步骤。最后运用此方法通过有序度来评价某工程公司的线性组织和矩阵组织两种组织形式。     

公司治理结构和自愿性信息披露关系的实证研究

本文选取了2002年169家中国上市公司作为研究样本，检验了公司治理结构的四个因素即董事会中独立非执行董事的比例、监事会人数、审计委员会、董事长是否兼任总经理与自愿性信息披露程度的关系。研究结果表明，董事长不兼任总经理的公司。其自愿性信息披露程度就比较高，而其余三个公司治理因素并没有对自愿性信息披露程度产生影响。     

浅谈现代物流产业的构成及存在的问题

目前,由五大行业组成的现代物流产业构架已基本形成,这对现代物流业的发展起着举足轻重的作用.文中就如何合理确立现代物流产业结构,合理配置资源方面谈及了自己的一些看法.     

Simpler Probabilistic Population Forecasts: Making Scenarios Work

The traditional high-low-medium scenario approach to quantifying uncertainty in population forecasts has been criticized as lacking probabilistic meaning and consistency. This paper shows, under certain assumptions, how appropriately calibrated scenarios can be used to approximate the uncertainty intervals on future population size and age structure obtained with fully stochastic forecasts. As many forecasting organizations already produce scenarios and because dealing with them is familiar territory, the methods presented here offer an attractive intermediate position between probabilistically inconsistent scenario analysis and fully stochastic forecasts.